How Did Lisa Do It?

Within minutes of the polls closing in Woonsocket for the mayoral primary on Oct. 8, it was clear that state Rep. Lisa Baldelli-Hunt was cruising to a victory over Mayor Leo Fontaine and challenger Dave Fisher.

For the 100 or so supporters crammed into One Social Street, the results may have been highly anticipated — maybe even a foregone conclusion — but few could have predicted the lopsided margin — 67-to-21 percent — over the incumbent.

A review of the race shows that five factors, typically in play during election years, all contributed to the victory for Baldelli-Hunt: 

1. Ground Game: 
After all the signs are up, the mailers sent, and the campaign events held, elections come down to one thing: Urging people to get to the polls. Baldelli-Hunt's operation helped ensure that eligible Democratic voters got at least one — and, in some cases, up to six — reminder phone calls heading into Tuesday's vote, according to Mike Cayer, who helped manage the primary day operation. Cayer also said that the campaign had five or six volunteers at all polling places during the day on Tuesday, providing a visible presence across the city on Primary Day.

2. Turnout:
With that kind of get-out-the-vote operation, Baldelli-Hunt helped ensure that more voters went to the polls this year — and that more of them would be supporting her when they filled out their ballots. In fact, turnout was up 51 percent from the 2011 campaign. Compared with last year's election — which also included the Presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney — Tuesday's primary collected about 800 more votes than were cast in Baldelli-Hunt's successful run for state representative, a further tribute to her campaign's GOTV efforts. And, as the results showed, 2 out of every 3 of those voters went her way.

3. Message:
Baldelli-Hunt set herself apart from the incumbent by hammering on themes of unity, cooperation, and leadership from her time in the State House, and tapping into voter frustration over the state budget review commission. Those themes may have been determined, at least in part, by surveys conducted by longtime pollster Joe Fleming. Baldelli-Hunt's campaign paid Fleming & Associates $4,000 in a "survey downpayment" and $1,250 in consulting fees in August, according to campaign finance documents. Fleming said on Tuesday night that the themes succeeded because Baldelli-Hunt stayed on message during the primary campaign.

4. Ballot Position:
This is very likely not unique to Rhode Island, but a candidate's ballot position can have an effect on the outcome. Baldelli-Hunt held the top spot on the alphabetically-listed ballot, while Fontaine's name fell to third, behind Dave Fisher, in the at-large primary. For candidates, it's arguably much easier to tell potential voters "Fill in the top arrow" than "look for my name."

5. Weather:
With sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s, Oct. 8 was a picture-perfect New England fall day, meaning that older voters — who typically make up the majority of people casting ballots — could travel to their local polling places without fear of rain or inclement weather. Damp weather usually dampens turnout — but Tuesday's weather meant that more people took the initiative to go to the polls.

[Disclosure: I've worked on campaigns that used Fleming's polling data to determine campaign strategy.]

Tell Us:
Why do you think Lisa Baldelli-Hunt succeeded in winning the Oct. 8 primary by such a large margin? What do you think she has to do from here to win in November?

If you supported Mayor Fontaine, what do you think he should do to win the Nov. 5 election?

Have your say in the comments below.